I used to be decisive with money, but now I’m not so sure. This is partly the cynicism of mid-life, partly the challenge of the present global ghastliness. Financial planning is all about confidence in the future. If we commit to large mortgage repayments or pension contributions, we’re making a bet that we’ll be able honour those commitments over the long term: “In 10 years’ time, I’ll definitely be able to afford £1,500 each month”. Given the uncertainty surrounding just about everything, is this realistic? How do we overcome the problem of making long-term financial decisions when the future is so uncertain?

Although I successfully won the “bet” on whether I’d be able to pay my mortgage when I was younger, this was partly due to luck. When I started out in the 1990s, house prices were significantly lower and employment generally more stable. Nevertheless, there were sticky episodes – high interest rates, redundancy, and relationship breakdowns – where I thought I’d lose my home. Apart from luck, I also relied on having the energy to recover from setbacks, for example by working a lot of overtime. Now I’m in my fifties, I need to take a more cautious approach to money. I’m not Madonna, so I can’t keep reinventing myself.

Having scoured many books on the topic, the advice is almost always to diversify your investments and buy insurance policies. In short, the answer to financial uncertainty is to buy more financial products. I’m reminded of the phone apps that ‘help’ you spend less time on your phone through gamification. They never just say, “put the wretched thing in a drawer and go for a walk”. Genuine alternatives are rarer than rational debate these days. And how do we get impartial advice that’s in our interests, rather than plumping up somebody’s profits?

When I experiment with retirement apps, the calculations are always based on making regular payments, as though life is consistent. My future self will be comfortable only if I can keep shovelling money into the stock market – which, of course, is completely responsive to our collective confidence levels. Although I’m obliged to make predictable contributions, whether I can live on my eventual pension depends on inflation, taxes, interest rates in 20 years’ time. Do you have any idea what’s going to happen in the 2040s? Me neither. I think it’s better that way. I need to find a better way.

Instead of catastrophising, I’m going to investigate non-financial ways I can support myself in later life. This is going to involve some larger experiments around alternative investments, co-operative living, and building a work community. None of these ideas is any more certain than traditional financial products, but even a partial success is likely to bring benefits. Unexpected or unwelcome results are still useful data. And experimenting feels like more fun than betting on the stock market.

This post is part of the Tiny Experiments series.